Hang on to your hats .............. looks like Matthew is turning north

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4...daynl#contents

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Wow, that does look like it will be getting pretty close.

The 0800 computer runs look a bit better for Jamaica. However at five days out everything is in play

Keep watch

Cap

doesn't look good for Jamaica at all......already a Category 2 Hurricane......
may land around the early hours of Monday morning.....ugh......fingers crossed it doesn't
skies already dark over Jamaica....feeder bans of rain starting today

Cool Runnings, Marko

I brought my chainsaw down in august, it was new and sitting in a barn for three years. Well I got a call from my friend who works for the government. Im now on the emergency worker list. Oh please Matthew go away and don't come back another day.

Good for you Eddie...that rocks!

Everyone comes together very quickly here...my first potential cat 5 hurricane (that fortunately veered off because of the Blue Mountains) I spent driving scared tourists from their seaside hotels to inland hotels...trying to calm everyone down...not being able to tell them this was my very first hurricane experience. :o Rob spends the time removing sat dishes etc...and of course helping neighbours get boarded up.

Hoping for the best outcome for all of the Caribbean!

No dark sky, wind or rain in sight from our yard. Beautiful morning!

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Stay safe down there.

Looks good Rob! Ya'll be safe! For those that aren't there we are praying for ya'll! Stay safe boardies that are there!

Stay safe you all - keeping you in my prayers!

A neighbour has been kind enough :D to blast his radio into the community for everyone to hear the potential storm updates and a little bit of music! Still beautiful blue skies and light breeze.

Neighbor looking out for his community! Ya Mon!- Ya'll take Lisa and Rob!;)

I've been in contact with Linston all day and the same things going on in the hills.

Bless Jamaica and pray please

Cap

Dang!

Sitting here with my fingers crossed for this thing to steer clear of both Jamaica and Cuba. But don't want it to hit poor Haiti either, God knows they have been through more than enough already!

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Originally Posted by halfwaytree

Dang!

Sitting here with my fingers crossed for this thing to steer clear of both Jamaica and Cuba. But don't want it to hit poor Haiti either, God knows they have been through more than enough already!

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No kidding, HWT....Haiti has had enough...breaks my heart.

Our Beach Internet command centre, Fun Holiday! And such a beautiful afternoon it is!

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Matthew has been upgraded to a cat 4... :mad: ...still hoping for the best!

Rob's getting a ton of calls...which is no problem...if you're on island and feeling uncomfortable/unsure...please don't hesitate to call us... (876) 423-5479...we'll help out the best we can.

Safe keeping!

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Originally Posted by Bnewb

Matthew has been upgraded to a cat 4... :mad: ...still hoping for the best!

Rob's getting a ton of calls...which is no problem...if you're on island and feeling uncomfortable/unsure...please don't hesitate to call us... (876) 423-5479...we'll help out the best we can.

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Big up guys!

Cap

Category 4 now- Matthew isn't fooling around. Hoping and praying that he steers clear of Jamaica and all the other islands down there. Take care, stay safe!

If I was there I would grab extra beer and rum, and a little water. Grab some ice as the power will go out and you will have warm beer if you do not. Turn the fridge up to max coldness to keep it as cold as long as possible. Hardo bread and some lunch meats and cheeses and do not forget the Doritos.

I miss Hurricane/Typhoon parties.

It's going East...... All will be well.

Im amazed at the amount of jacans who say I see no clouds or storm no worries. I hear allot of people killed in Gilbert had that same attitude. People driving crazy at the last minute and what not. This storm is definitely not your average hurricane. Can't find one on record that far south and from cat 1 to cat 5 that quickly, glad I have a cement house. My morning friend just stopped by he's looking forward to the work after the storm hits. That's one way of looking at it.

At this moment in time it looks like St. Thomas & Portland is going to get a direct hit. Stay safe everyone!

Prayers for all those in the path of Matthew! Stay safe our Negril friends!
See you soon!

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Here's the 0800 computer runs today. If this holds up for another 12 hours we will have dodged the bullet.

The west (right) side of the track is called the navigable semicircle. The wind on that side will start out of the East and back into the North. The spine of mountains down the length will help to protect the south side from Kingston to Sav La Mar, The North coast will get hit.

Here's the forecast wind rose when Mathew is just about at the same Latitude as Jamaica. It indicates winds in Negril will be in the 30 - 40 Kt range.

Another 24 hrs will tighten this forecast up. Keep praying
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Forecast valid 03/0600z 16.2n 75.7w
Max wind 110 kt...gusts 135 kt.
50 kt... 80ne 50se 40sw 60nw.
34 kt...170ne 120se 70sw 140nw.
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Forecast valid 04/0600z 19.5n 76.0w
Max wind 110 kt...gusts 135 kt.
50 kt...100ne 70se 50sw 60nw.
34 kt...180ne 160se 100sw 140nw.

If this monster doesn't turn north soon you can throw all the computer models out. Its slow movement makes this a very unpredictable storm. Kingston is 76deg48min west. If this storm passes that point and still hasn't turned north hang on to your hats.

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Originally Posted by eddiemingus

Im amazed at the amount of jacans who say I see no clouds or storm no worries. I hear allot of people killed in Gilbert had that same attitude. People driving crazy at the last minute and what not. This storm is definitely not your average hurricane...

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Being on the Negril Beach during Gilbert was a different time in 1988. With limited electricity, the was virtually no TV available and spotty radio at best. And certainly no weather channels.

The evening before it hit we marvelled at the beautiful sunset. We had no clue a hurricane was coming until the next morning when the radio station out of Kingston went off the air completely. Seeing the storm firsthand, people had no choice but prepare at the last minute.

Forty five people died in Jamaica. Most from floods and landslides or because their board house was blown away. That was when most wooden structures were replaced by concrete on the beach.

Hearing the banging of the ply going up over the windows this morning is another sign people are preparing.

Plywood is being sold as fast as it can. HiLo and Value Master were busy yesterday.

This is nothing like Gilbert.

I had to find an extra chain for my chainsaw yesterday, made a trip to sav went to 3 hardware stores
also samuels hardware and the hardware by texaco. I only saw 1 person at samuels buying all the rope they could. Everyone else was there with normal lists paint and what not. I saw no one anywhere buying ply I guesse I missed all those people.

Here is a link to the Jamaican Emergency Preparedness site. At the very top is a link to shelters all across Jamaica. Please share!!

http://www.odpem.org.jm/

Lol...just saw a truck full of ply go by...someone has a lot of windows :)

I remember wondering the same thing the first time I experienced a potential hurricane...
why isn't anyone panicking?...why isn't anyone getting prepared?...
Rob was acting the same way...grrrrrr...
but as soon as it seemed that it REALLY WAS going to hit (not veer or die off)...everybody got it together fast fast, helped each other out quick...I don't take well to being bossed around :eek: but I knew whom to listen in this case...Jamaicans around us were well ready and bossy...lol.

Thankfully the government emergency services are already set up...unlike the old old days! Major institutions as in banks, government offices etc are closed Monday and Tuesday, the police are prepared, Digicel says they are well ready, shelters are available...
still keeping my fingers crossed as we're watching the storm weaken...stay safe all!

And I agree with Booger...at some point you do all you can to get ready and then you join the hurricane party in your neighbourhood!! Beers are cold so far.... ;)

**Also just remembered another common reaction...Jamaicans do not want visitors panicking as they're still wishing everyone to have the best time possible and not to have to worry about what's going on.
Jamaicans have most everything under control and find it unnecessary to have visitors panic by telling them they're concerned about events that may not occur. In the tourist areas they will take care of the visitors first.

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Originally Posted by Rob

Being on the Negril Beach during Gilbert was a different time in 1988.

This is nothing like Gilbert.

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The eye Gilbert went straight down the Island from East to West with most of the wind racking the mountains. Ivan did the same but was slightly off shore of the South coast same path.

This one is like Sandy moving South to North we hope just offshore of Portland



Cap

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Originally Posted by eddiemingus

Kingston is 76deg48min west. If this storm passes that point and still hasn't turned north hang on to your hats.

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Let's hope the modesl are correct. The six main models all agree on the turn. If it doesn't you'll have to hang on to more than your hat


BTW my yard is at 78.266° W

Cap

I just left the hardware store plenty of ply still. I'm thinking of using 1/2inch square mesh. My burgler bars are on the outside. Ply is $3100 per sheet. Mesh is $900 for almost the same size. If money is tight you might want to put up mesh.

We are fortunate to have our home built with impact resistant windows/glass...guess we'll see how they hold up though I still prefer not to find out!

This is a great article just came out Saturday night. Only 2 hurricanes out of 20 had a north south route. All the rest were parallel from souteast to wesr northwest
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/Je...?entrynum=3456

At the speed this storm is moving and if it doesn't change it won't reach until late tues early wed. This storm is totaly unconventional. They realy haven't got anything right yet except that it is a hurricane. It's made up of 2 cell's something they very rarely see if ever. My friend says Matthew is a batty mon and very confused. I'm staying vigilant but am just as confused as Matthew.

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Originally Posted by eddiemingus

unconventional. They realy haven't got anything right yet except that it is a hurricane.

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I think the models have done very well. Here's the first run at 0800EDT last Wednesday and today's run. Matthew has not left the probability cone yet.

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No change in the 1700 (5:00PM) forecast update.

Tomorrow will tell the tale.

Still looks positive....

Cap

Forecast holding as of 0500. Looks like the best place to be in Jamaica will be the west end of the Island.

But it sure is gonna rain!

Cap

Looks like we dodged a bullet, no wind or rain ja bless. I be praying for poor Haiti. They just can't catch a break.