http://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/T...175249871.html
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OY please let our visa be ready this afternoon so we can fly out tomorrow ahead of the storm. Thanks for the link Lady. I am very intereted on the developments. Bless
SWEETNESS --- GOOD LUCK TO YOU. I am keeping my fingers crossed that the paperwork comes thru on time and you can FLY, FLY, FLY!!!
All the Best. PEACE
:)
I suppose we'll be here riding it out...the hubs has expressed no interest in leaving early.
Oh no :(
My friends arrive today on their honeymoon
Hope this passes quickly with very little effect on everyone
Stay safe
Praying for our Jamaica Friends and Family !!!
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ACQUIRED
SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THE EXACT CENTER IS STILL A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...BUT THE
SYSTEM HAS CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
INCREASED MARKEDLY SINCE OVERNIGHT. REFINEMENTS TO THE POSITION
COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY ONCE THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE INVESTIGATES THE SYSTEM.
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 230/4 KT. THE CYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD
CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
AFTER 24 HOURS...A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CUBA
SHOULD PULL THE DEPRESSION NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD JAMAICA AND
EASTERN CUBA. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW VARYING SCENARIOS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK...THEY ALL AGREE ON A PERSISTENT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH DAY 5. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE
FOR STRENGTHENING...AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. IN
FACT...THERE IS A 50/50 CHANCE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL STRENGTHEN
BY AT LEAST 25 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BASED ON THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
FAIRLY QUICK STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BE ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A HURRICANE AS IT IS
APPROACHING JAMAICA. AFTER 48 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY...AND NEARLY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL TAKE ON MORE HYBRID
CHARACTERISTICS...SUCH AS AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD TO THE NORTH AND
ITS INTERACTION WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS THE CYCLONE BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL STORM
BY DAY 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 13.5N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 13.7N 78.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 14.3N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 15.7N 77.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 17.4N 77.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 20.5N 76.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND OVER CUBA
96H 26/1200Z 24.5N 74.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 27/1200Z 27.0N 73.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...SUBTROPICAL
More interesting is a few outlier models that take this storm as a doozy up into the Balt/wash/philly/nyc area.
Right now the consensus of the models puts Kingston on the NE corner of the rotation (the mariner's term is the "dangerous semicircle").
The GDFL (Fluid Dynamics Lab 's Model) takes it farther West and puts the west end of Jamaica in the dangerous semicircle.
Ja is a small target and there's a chance that it will miss altogether. Let's hope
I think it it gets by Jamaica as a TS. Gonna be a soaker though.Quote:
Originally Posted by captaind
Got a really bad feeling about this storm and all the rain it will bring to Jamaica.
How long do these storms usually last? is it wise to postpone Nov 2 vacation?
Embury. I arrive the same day and there won't be a problem. What time do you get in?Quote:
Originally Posted by embury
Cap
i arrive at 7pm out of Toronto
Quote:
Originally Posted by embury
By 7:PM I'll be well into my drinking and eating. I'm at Seastar for the weekend. Maybe our paths will cross......
How long is your reach Captaind? I'm arriving for a short stint on the 10th. If I'm not too tired (I'm leaving for the airport at 3:00 AM), I plan on making it to the Seastar concert/webcast that night. (and the One Love Bus Pub Crawl on the 14th)
Never fails :( leaving for Kingston tomorrow ! Hopefully it will pass quickly. Bringing my rain gear -haha
Only for the weekend. I going to a formal function at my Lodge in Sav on Sat night. Hope to get back to Seastar for the second set.Quote:
Originally Posted by Johio
I'll be in my Eagles green on Monday night for the game at SS. Heading back on Tues morning.
Tropical storm sandy discussion number 2
nws national hurricane center miami fl al182012
500 pm edt mon oct 22 2012
the air force hurricane hunters found a band of surface winds near
35 kt over the southeastern quadrant of the cyclone...so the system
is being named at this time. The environment should be
characterized by weak shear...and the storm will be over warm
waters...for the next couple of days so additional strengthening is
likely. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous
forecast and close to the model consensus. This could be
conservative...however...as the rapid intensification index shows a
significant possibility of rapid strengthening during the next day
or so.
Aircraft observations show that the central region of the storm is
characterized by a fairly flat pressure field...but the center
appears to be located somewhat to the south of the previous
estimates. However...little overall motion appears to have taken
place this afternoon. Global models predict that the
mid-tropospheric ridge to the north of sandy will gradually weaken
within the next day or so...which should allow the tropical cyclone
to begin moving north to north-northeastward soon. The official
track forecast is somewhat to the west of the model consensus but
not as far west as the latest ecmwf forecast. This is only a
little to the west of the previous official forecast track.
Forecast positions and max winds
init 22/2100z 12.5n 78.5w 35 kt 40 mph
12h 23/0600z 13.6n 78.5w 35 kt 40 mph
24h 23/1800z 14.9n 78.3w 45 kt 50 mph
36h 24/0600z 16.4n 77.8w 55 kt 65 mph
48h 24/1800z 18.2n 77.2w 60 kt 70 mph
72h 25/1800z 22.0n 76.0w 50 kt 60 mph...over water
96h 26/1800z 25.0n 75.0w 50 kt 60 mph
120h 27/1800z 27.5n 74.0w 45 kt 50 mph
If this holds it's good for Jamaica. The 48 hr prog puts it to the East . The Island will be on the lee side.Quote:
Originally Posted by Living_the_Dream
Wheres it suppose to be saturday? when i fly in?
Sometimes it rains....some times it doesn't.......Quote:
Originally Posted by Tattoo
Jamaica is going to get hit Wednesday PM by Sandy and it will be a Cat 1 hurricane with a ton of rain.
This is coming from the south versus the East which is really bad news for the south coast of Jamaica.
Tropical storm sandy discussion number 4...corrected
nws national hurricane center miami fl al182012
500 am edt tue oct 23 2012
bands of very deep convection have developed over the eastern
portion of the circulation overnight. However...there appears to
be very little overall change in the inner-core structure during
the past 12-18 hours...as an earlier ascat pass indicated that
sandy still has a large area of light winds near the center.
Subjective dvorak t-numbers are t2.5...and the initial wind
speed is maintained at 40 kt. An air force reserve hurricane
hunter aircraft is currently en route to the cyclone and should
provide a better assessment of the intensity of the storm.
Sandy appears to be moving slowly northward. The track guidance is
in very good agreement on a faster north to north-northeastward
motion beginning today as a mid-level ridge to the north of sandy
weakens. The center of sandy should move near or over
jamaica on wednesday and approach eastern cuba by wednesday night.
The model guidance remains in good agreement through 96 hours with
a track across the central bahamas. By day 5...however...there is
significant spread in the guidance...with the ecmwf along the
western edge of the guidance envelope and the hwrf along the
eastern side. The gfs is closer to the middle of the guidance
envelope and the nhc forecast is based on the multi-model consensus
and the florida state ensemble at days 4 and 5.
Environmental conditions consisting of low shear...warm waters...
And a moist atmosphere...favor strengthening during the next
couple of days. In fact...all of the intensity models bring
sandy to hurricane strength within 36 to 48 hours and so does
the nhc forecast. After sandy crosses eastern cuba...the
vertical shear is forecast to increase significantly...however the
global models depict a deepening cyclone...possibly due to some
baroclinic forcing. The nhc forecast still indicates the system
becoming subtropical late in the period...although there are some
indications in the global models that sandy could be transitioning
to an extratropical cyclone around that time.
Forecast positions and max winds
init 23/0900z 13.3n 78.6w 40 kt 45 mph
12h 23/1800z 14.1n 78.2w 50 kt 60 mph
24h 24/0600z 15.6n 77.8w 60 kt 70 mph
36h 24/1800z 17.6n 77.4w 70 kt 80 mph
48h 25/0600z 19.6n 77.0w 70 kt 80 mph
72h 26/0600z 24.0n 76.0w 60 kt 70 mph
96h 27/0600z 26.8n 74.8w 60 kt 70 mph
120h 28/0600z 30.0n 71.5w 60 kt 70 mph...subtropical
$$
forecaster brown
To all our friends in Jamaica - stay safe and dry! Our thoughts are with you...
The 1100 prog looks the same. Jamaica will most probably have a Cat 1 coming ashore on the South coast somewhere.
The Met service has issued a Hurricane warning. Batten down folks!
Our thought are with you and more importantly with immediate and extended family...
Standing by
Agreed!
Rob, Lisa, Family, Friends, Boardies, Staff and everyone else, please be safe! We are all thinking of you and hoping for the best
Rob- if you can keep us all posted that would be much appreciated
I have friends there now they just got married and their group are staying at Breezes Grand Negril. They are to fly home this Thursday the 25th. Think they will have any problems getting off the island?
Thanks Marley!!
T&A...we won't know much until the storm arrives...it's fooled us many times before by veering off & only dropping a bit of rain. Your friends will best be advised by the airlines...they should contact them.
Live webcast at www.realnegril.com coming up at noon Ja time....you can check the current conditions...get a glimpse of the sea action...
Thanks Bnewb,
I will for sure check the web cast (if I'm not blocked on my work computer).
Be safe all!
The webcast is showing overcast skies but no rain or waves as yet at Fun Holiday on the beach as of 1PM Jamaican Time.
"The Donald Sangster International Airport (Montego Bay)has been scheduled to close after the last flight out on Tuesday night until Thursday morning due Tropical Storm Sandy that will become Hurricane Sandy this PM the Meteorological Service of Jamaica reported"
Miss,thanks for the update.
The 5PM prog put the eye coming ashore between Bull Bay and Sav tomorrow about 10AM
The puts Negril (and my yard) on the "navigable side" of the eye and Kingston on the "dangerous side"
I've been in touch with the family and we are prepared with food and water.
No point in hoping it will miss. Just get prepared......
Looks like they're hunkering down, they've imposed a curfew but I don't see Negril on the list http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/...curfew-imposed
Sangster is closing at 8:00 am tomorrow... http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/...00am-Wednesday
Stay safe everyone
70MPH Winds at 5AM with winds expected to be 75MPH when it hit's the center of the island later this morning in the Portland/May Pen area.
Kingston’s airport was set to close at 7 a.m. EDT (1100 GMT) Wednesday, and Montego Bay’s airport planned to shutter at 9 a.m. EDT (1300 GMT) which is 8AM Jamaican time. Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. announced that its Allure of the Seas megaship would not stop at Jamaica’s northern Falmouth terminal on Wednesday and instead remain at sea.
Hopefully it moves through quickly
The latest from National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3...daynl#contents
Timm, good job with the updates. Remember Garzan with his updates? :)
Good luck to all on the island.
Nothing to report from Negril & area....intermittent light rain around various areas in Negril...a light wind...sea is getting choppy....nothing consistent.
Thanks for the update Lisa, keep safe. You all will be in my thoughts & prayers!!