From the forecasts I'm seeing online, there's a 'tropical wave' that's east of the Southern Leeward Islands that they're saying might be a tropical depression by the weekend and maybe a hurricane by next week. What are you guys hearing down there?
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From the forecasts I'm seeing online, there's a 'tropical wave' that's east of the Southern Leeward Islands that they're saying might be a tropical depression by the weekend and maybe a hurricane by next week. What are you guys hearing down there?
Hearing the same things here, except we also are receiving high sea warnings for the fishermen and people who live on the Cays to come inland.Quote:
Originally Posted by ukran1ans
If it stays on the current track, it should make its closest approach on Monday, but we would be feeling the effects earlier than that. The northward turn will make all the difference, but with Fiona messing with it now and Gaston coming down to change the winds, it is really hard to say this far out what kind of weather we will be having on Monday.
But do expect some wind and rain no matter where it ends up - we had a fluke storm the other day that took down branches all over town. And that came outta nowhere!
Sounds like good drinking days... any suggestions? LOLQuote:
Originally Posted by Rob
Rum, lots of rum!Quote:
Originally Posted by ukran1ans
Looks like the storm will 'nip' the west end of the island with 4-8 inches of rain and 60-80mph wind gusts with the current forecast, Sunday and Monday
The current track is moving more westerly, taking the storm further from Jamaica. Twenty miles further can make a world of difference.Quote:
Originally Posted by ukran1ans
But each time I check the updated track, it changes from the previous track so there are still many unknowns with this one. One nice thing is that they are guessing it will be moving at a rather fast pace meaning that whatever we get won't last the 3 days that was yesterday's track.
We will keep monitoring it closely so you have the latest accurate information available!
Next update should be around 5pm or so....
The new weather update has Jamaica under a Tropical Storm Watch. The current track has it slightly further from Jamaica and maintaining tropical storm status so this will produce some wind and rains, but nothing serious.
https://i.postimg.cc/FHMJBsFF/1-Untitled.png
The main spaghetti models are pretty much overlapping, so this track seems to be the consensus for the future. Apparently, the chance of an early northern move is less likely now, so the storm will be well out at sea. We are expecting rough seas, the cliff properties on the West End will probably take some high waves.
https://i.postimg.cc/q7r27MPb/Untitled.png
The Jamaica Meteorological Service has stated that the rains and winds should start Saturday afternoon and continue until sometime Monday. We will be in the outer bands of the storm so the rain and wind will be on and off for probably the entire weekend.
We will have another update in the morning!
Stay safe everyone! We anxiously await updates.
Should be something interesting to watch from the LTU bar!Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob
Hurricane Rita back in 2005 followed the current projected path and destroyed Ricks for the second time in two years. Ivan had demolished Rick's in 2004. They were nearly done with construction when the worst happened.Quote:
Originally Posted by ukran1ans
The cliff hotels are moving their guests to inland hotels today. If we do get high seas, LTU may not be the best place to be.
The outer bands of wind are starting to pick up force, rain should be coming shortly. Flow internet has already gone out. Will keep you informed as long as we can!
The weather calmed and we are actually getting a sunset tonight!
Keep you posted.
Any sunset pics?Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob
https://i.postimg.cc/HLFd5MXV/20220924-203816.jpg
Enjoying the calm night at ltu
Ukran1ans,
The torch is passed to you, I'm back in Boston.
Enjoy the LTU sunset!
VVHT aka Happy
Let me guess...Robin is on duty. Enjoy and keep the picks coming.
It is exactly 5:00am and the rain has started. No winds at all and the rain is coming down like a light rain that you wouldn't even have to make a mad dash to your car. A simple brisk walk would be fine.
Just noticed something unusual, when all tropical storms strengthen, the barometric pressure lowers. The lower the pressure, the stronger the storm. Bad ones are usually under 950mb (millibars). Really bad ones are below 900mb.
Ian formed at 1006mb as a tropical depression on the 23rd. It is currently at 1002mb, an insignificant decrease. To reach category 2 strength by tomorrow, there should be a big drop in the pressure to something under 990mb.
We will keep watching those numbers.
Oh, Flow is back...
Thanx for the updates, Rob. Stay safe.......say hey to Lisa from us.
Latest update: according to NOAA, the northernly move has started. Ian is still traveling WNW but with a more northerly shift.
The barometric pressure is still high, 1001mb. It doesn't seem to be gaining in intensity yet, but apparently there are deep hot water in the northerly path which is supposed to have it intensify quickly. NOAA has it going from its current tropical storm to a Cat 3 overnight on Monday to Tuesday (42 hours from now). That is before it reaches Cuba.
It has been raining in Kingston, the eastern side of the island for that matter and there has been some power outages but nothing serious. In Negril it is oddly calm, no wind, no rain and a comfortable 28c or 82f.
More updates once the northern movement is confirmed.
All in all this is turning out to be a comfortable day! Temperature is a comfortable 28/82 - slight breeze and cloud cover. No rain.
Ian has been moving northwesterly now for the last 4 NOAA updates (3 hours apart) and that is the first time that it has done that. The north move has started. But it also keeps moving west away from Jamaica, so we are not even in the potential tropical wind cone. NOAA has a whole bunch of different cones.
Other than what occurred on the eastern part of the island yesterday, Jamaica has been spared the wrath of Ian.
We are still going to get some moderately heavy rains this afternoon and probably well into the evening. But that can happen any given day in the tropics! And speaking of rain - it literally just started after being clear since this morning.
The eastern side of the island may be getting more rain than here - so we will be checking on flooding and landslides that tend to accompany heavy or extended rains.
Stay tuned!
The Meteorological Service has issued a flash flood warning for flood-prone areas of several parishes across Jamaica. The flash flood warning is in effect for St Mary, Portland, St Thomas, Kingston, St Andrew, St Catherine, and Clarendon. This means that flooding has been reported or will occur shortly.
We had wind bands from Hurricane Ian all last night but very little if any rain.
At 5am, we did get a few minutes of rain which seemed to mark Ian's closest approach to Jamaica (being Negril). At that moment, Ian and Jamaica were on the exact same latitude. Ian's barometric pressure has dropped 983mb making it a full fledged hurricane.
We are not out of the woods yet although Ian is moving away. Its increase from a tropical storm to hurricane has been impressive. As it heads north, it will gain in both intensity and size.
So even though it is technically further away, we will be still in its ever-increasing outer bands. By Wednesday afternoon we will be near the bottom of the hurricane, with its easterly blowing winds. Negril, being on the western most end of the island, will probably be experiencing the worst wave impacts on the cliffs and the beach.
This thing is not over yet...
This morning has been a textbook case for being in the outer bands of a hurricane. Bursts of heavy rain and strong winds lasting just 10 minutes or so, followed by perfectly calm skies. About 15 minutes later the next burst hits.
It seems that unless Ian grows at an amazing rate, all of Jamaica should be out of the outer bands later today.
The last phase of Ian has started. As Ukranian's pictures from this morning show, the sea is just beginning to get rough. This will continue until well after the entire width/length of Ian moves north past the island.
The 5:30pm update on Monday has Ian now a Cat 2 at 972mb and it has been increasing in size as it moves more slowly north. Jamaica will be stuck in the outer bands until at least 9pm Monday.
It has been raining off and on all day, with a few gusts of wind to accompany the rain.
Ian just doesn't want to leave.
https://i.postimg.cc/zvCd0xqc/IMG-20...-182450-vr.jpg
Well the weather didn't seem to slow up Lenbert and the One Love bus tour as they showed up last night at LTU
Looking at the Rock's and Coco La Palm (frozen at the moment) web cams. Seems that the sea is still choppy but not as rough as it was yesterday.
Sometimes pronounced "Rick's"...lol But there are a lot of rocks in the picture.
For all those in the path of Hurricane Ian... we're thinking of you and please get yourself safe!
We're praying for the best outcome of Ian redirecting & dissipating before reaching landfall! 🙏
R&L