PTJohn,
That is an interesting article from January 2015. It has been previously discussed here. The data was gleaned from "observations" as stated in the article:
"In a 2013 paper - co-written by Carlnenus Johnson and titled 'Shoreline Change in Jamaica: Observations for the period 1968 to 2010 and projections to 2060' - Burgess found: "Long-term shoreline retreat rates were observed to vary between 0.17 and 0.76 metres per annum, with an average of 0.26 metres per annum."
Of the nine beaches looked at in the research, the fastest eroding were "Negril (Westmoreland) at 0.76 metres per annum, Old Harbour Bay (St Catherine) at 0.74 metres per annum, and Long Bay (Portland) at 0.36 metres per annum"."
I was actually interviewed for the Carlnenus Johnson study, filling out a form of which I felt was skewed to obtain the desired numbers. Questions such as "Have you ever seen the beach erode?", I had to answer yes because during any storm the sand gets washed away temporarily. I did have a chance to mention the sea level map that had been recently released back then, and they were unaware of it and wanted more information. I provided it to them. It is interesting to note that while the study reports actual numbers for the beaches erosion, it does not mention any certain sea level rise numbers.
For the above study information to be accurate, from 1968 to 2010, the Negril beach would have lost some 32 meters of beach, which is over 100 feet. How can 100 feet disappear while many visitors have observed the beach grow with their own eyes in recent years? And does anyone really believe in depth measurements were taken of the beach width starting back in 1968, when sea level rise due to climate change was not on anyone's mind 47 years ago?
Perhaps this more recent article from June 2015 has a different take on the situation, using more recent, actual measurements:
http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/envir...owing_19085585
"BEACHES around the island grew by an average six per cent last year, according to government research which profiled 35 sites in six parishes and compared the figures to those recorded for 2013.
The sites included 15 beaches in Negril, the resort town on the western end of the island which is at the centre of the standoff between Government and stakeholder groups over plans to build a breakwater there. The beach grew by 19.1 per cent, moving from 27.1 metres in 2013 to 32.3 metres in 2014."
So from 2013 to 2014, the Negril beach grew by 5 meters, which is 17 feet in one year. This is an actual measurement, not an observation. This growth seems more inline with the more recent first hand observations posted here and from the pictures being posted in this thread than the observations from the study you posted in your link.
Global sea rise seems inevitable in the future, no one here is disputing that. But even as the co-author of the study in that link you posted says, "It is not that sea level rise is the only thing responsible for coastal erosion. There would be other factors, for example, changes in the intensity and frequency of hurricanes."
The number of hurricanes we had during the mid 2000's were off the charts and broke all kinds of records. And that did a number on the beach. Since we have had many fewer hurricanes since then, the beach has been given a chance to grow back naturally.
