i don't think it will take that long. i've only been visiting jamaica for 25 years (which isn't that long, compared to some folks on this board) and how it is there today is very different from what i experienced on my first trip.
back in the 80s i i knew a lot of people who used to go to negril and the type of trips they were able to do back then were getting harder to do by the time i made it there.
i can't imagine these days you'd be able to find a camping spot on the beach for $5 bucks a night (what my friends used to do) and i definitely would not expect to see a rando tourist roaming around bloody bay wasted drunk and naked, with his penis poked through a seagrape leaf (a very mild example of the things i'd encounter all the time in negril).
i'm pretty sure the inevitability is that it's heading towards AI only with a few miami-style boutiques sprinkled in, and it won't take 40 years to get to that point.
EDITED TO ADD: from what i remember, the 90s were a pretty bad time for drugs and crime in negril (and JA in general), but that didn't seem to stop younger people from coming to party. are drugs and crime actually worse now? it doesn't seem like they are to me.
i think the problem is jamaica on a whole hasn't found a way to attract younger travelers- both first timers and returnees. it seems like it's been coasting on the demographic that started visiting in the 80s and 90s and, now that that crowd is thinning, is now saying "fk it," and selling itself off to AI developers.





