Should We Go, or Should We Stay?

[Rob]

As am I grateful, as I said, I am fully vaxed. An interesting study that if you are not already aware of is that a booster of the J&J (based on the most recent data we have from the origin of Omicron in South Africa) is more effective than a booster of Pfizer against Omicron. T-cell counts drastically improve.

Pfizer suggesting a 4th jab seems to have no scientific basis whatsoever. The only real data we have is from South Africa. For Pfizer to suggest a 4th jab without having data to prove its benefit, while it might work, it will most certainly put more money in their pockets. Governments, as in we, the people, are paying for the free jabs.

Obviously some of the resistance to the "vaccines" come from the fact that there have been so many public "breakthrough" cases (more than one would believe from an actual "vaccine"), and with Omicron even triple vaxxed are testing positive although having milder symptoms. So as a vaccine, they are not doing what a vaccine is supposed to do.

Had the global public been told from the outset that the jab was not a vaccine but something to lessen the symptoms, hospitalizations and dying and that Covid would be with us until global herd immunity was reached from actually becoming infected, I think more people would have understood just how important the jabs would be in saving their lives and ending the pandemic and taken the shot(s).

But as I have said, it wasn't sold to the public as a therapeutic but as a vaccine cure so we could all go about our previously normal lives. People are not stupid, but when they are lied to by those in authority that should know better, they end up not trusting what they are hearing even from the experts.

This practically goes back to the boy who cried wolf fable, when you are lied to enough, you don't even believe it when it is true.

[wrtiii]

Rob, I don't mean to start a fight about this, but you're mistaken about vaccines in general and the COVID-19 ones in particular. Before vaccines are approved, the clinical studies assess the effectiveness (aka efficacy) as well as the safety; few if any vaccines are 100% effective. Smallpox vaccine, the gold standard for vaccine effectiveness, is 95%; measles is 93% for one dose and 97% for two. Vaccines work in two ways, the prophylactic effect (preventing disease symptoms by stimulating the immune system's production of antibodies), and the therapeutic effect (reducing disease symptoms by preparing the immune system to produce T cells rapidly upon infection). During the clinical trials, the effectiveness of the various COVID-19 contenders was widely reported, and you can look that up. One dose of J&J was more effective than one dose of Moderna or Pfizer, which is why the standard for the latter two was set at two doses to start with. Also, most vaccines (and the body's own immune responses) are not forever, partly because of our own immune systems and partly because antigens vary and evolve. For example, once you've had chickenpox, you are nominally immune to it, but the chickenpox virus remains in your system and can express itself later in life as shingles, which is why the older population is encouraged to get a shingles vaccine to bump up the immune response to it for 4 years.

[Rob]

A discussion doesn't have to end up being a fight but it often is a good way to learn.

I don't think I am mistaken, but I do know that the definition of a vaccine has been changing since Covid started.

Older definitions stated things like, "a substance used to stimulate the production of antibodies and provide immunity against one or several diseases" or "any preparation used as a preventive inoculation to confer immunity against a specific disease".

This is what the word vaccine means to most of the people in the world. The current definition, updated by the CDC on September 1, 2021 and the WHO on August 30, 2021 changed the word immunity to protection. Here is the search source so anyone can check it:

https://www.bing.com/search?q=defini...T003&scope=web

The current Covid vaccines are still listed as approved on an emergency basis and have been since December 2020. They have not been through the rigorous, lengthy clinical trials that all the other vaccines you mentioned were made to go through. They are still on "Emergency Use Authorization" by the "Thorough Evaluation of Available Safety, Effectiveness, and Manufacturing Quality Information by FDA Career Scientists, Input from Independent Experts". This is not how the other vaccines you mentioned were granted approval.

I am far from an anti-vaxxer, I am fully vaccinated. But the truth is that the promise of the Covid vaccines were over sold. From the Washington Post article November 2020:

"A vaccine won't be available immediately for everybody," says Arthur Reingold, a professor of epidemiology at the School of Public Health at the University of California, Berkeley. He also chairs California's COVID-19 Scientific Safety Review Workgroup, which will evaluate the safety and efficacy of covid-19 vaccines.

“It probably will take four to six months,” he says. “What that says to me is that people will have to keep wearing masks at least until spring. We won’t be in a magically different situation by February or March. I don’t see how that can possibly happen.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...bc9_story.html

This is what the world was being told by the same scientific community that approved the Covid vaccines for emergency use.

Add this to the common belief that vaccines offer immunity and it is not hard to tell why people question the vaccines and the experts that promote them.

And smallpox has been completely eliminated by the vaccine. 100%

From the BBC:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources...3-a4568e161c4f

Amazing results like this also led people to the false belief that the Covid vaccines would prevent Covid.

[wrtiii]

Good discussion.

My point is that no vaccine gives 100% immunity. The elimination of smallpox was made possible by the development of a vaccine that was 90% effective, in combination with developed long-term immunity by those who survived it. Note that "immunity" doesn't mean there's an invisible force field keeping a virus away from you, but that when a virus gets into you, the multiple layers of your immune system are able to deal with it without you getting sick, or very sick.

Smallpox was eliminated because (1) the virus - antigen - that causes it is a relatively easy one that doesn't mutate very rapidly and once your immune system recognizes it, the response is long-lasting; (2) a vaccine was developed that would alert the immune system against the antigen in 90% of the vaccinated population; and (3) a global effort was made in the late 1960's (nominally begun in 1959 but dramatically ramped up in 1967) to not only vaccinate everyone but to aggressively contact trace and isolate infected and exposed individuals in every country worldwide. This effort took about 10 years.

I think people used to understand this, and accept it. When I was a kid, the health services would formally quarantine families where there was a case of mumps. This meant that they put up "QUARANTINE" signs on your house, and the family was really locked down - no trips to the grocery store, no "essential worker" exceptions, etc. In combination with the MMR vaccines which confer about 85% protection, mumps has now become fairly rare, at least among the vaccinated.

The word "antibody" has been in use since before we knew what the things we now call "antibodies" are. The immune system has multiple layers, and the definition of "antibody" has narrowed from "something in the blood stream that attacks the antigen" to a rather precise chemical definition, and the existence and role of T cells, which attack infected cells rather than the antigen, has become more understood. A lot of this came in the 1990's as part of HIV/AIDS research. That's a large part of the reason the definitions had to change: it turns out that people with long-term immunity to a disease might have low antibodies against the disease, but heightened T cell response, or there's more going on with our immune systems than we understand at present (definitely true!).

At present, we in the US lack the public spirit and will to really isolate infected people; AIDS was a large part of the reason for that, as isolating was the same as "coming out" and we as a society shifted to thinking that telling people you had a transmissible disease was optional on your part.

One thing that has changed dramatically is that as far as I can tell, the "medical community" you cite really doesn't exist, because in the Internet era, politics completely dominate. By this I don't mean Democrat/Republican or Conservative/Liberal, but "if I agree with someone, I can rebroadcast his information or disinformation to everyone and Facebook will help me do it if I express outrage". "Dr, Oz says...". You yourself shared a BBC link that was written "By the Visual Journalism Team" and includes no references; while I am not saying anything in that article is wrong, generalizations such as these are designed to attract clicks, to have attractive visuals, and to be easy to read, but it is very difficult to fact check them. There have been a huge number of supposedly authoritative postings by "X who is a real doctor" during the past two years that are intended to play into the current tribal political situation rather than actually convey information. The CDC itself became much more political, and while I continue to think that the bulk of the researchers who work there are dedicated scientists, their number and funding were reduced and the actions and public statements by those at the top have been dubious at best. Redfield's term as the CDC Director certainly was a failure. But I'm not sure anyone could succeed in an environment where anyone claiming that bleach, or ivermectin, or zinc, or nasal douches, or vitamin C, or, or, or... gets an immediate large viewing audience.

[Rob]

The only reason I added the BBC link was it was the first place I found a reference to smallpox being eradicated. And also in the attractive visual showing where we are with measles, I am included in that 1968 "bubble" that is shown. I was allergic to the measles vaccine. But there was no quarantine sign nor did any of my vaccinated 6 siblings get it. Measles suck...

And the medical community I am referring to are the ones cited by the CDC, the "FDA Career Scientists, Input from Independent Experts".

[Rob]

With some 3000 new positive cases island wide in the last 5 days, there has only been 30 new hospitalizations. So that is good news of a hospitalization rate of 1%. Similar to regular respiratory viral infection hospitalization rates pre-Covid based on 2017-2018.

This closely follows the South African experience with Omicron, and we may be looking at the end of this pandemic as we have known it.

Keep your fingers crossed, knock on wood, pray, GET VAXXED....

For those curious, the parish of Westmoreland where Negril is located has had 65 new cases of the 3000. The Resilient Corridor must be working as the average number of cases per parish should be over 200.

[Lax1724]

As much as it pains me, I am going to keep politics out of this response. I will simply state that I just returned last night from a phenomenal week at the Beach House Condos (my 7th trip there). Last year, we bailed at the very last second and ended up having to unpack. I would not wish that on anyone. This year, there are a lot less unknowns with the virus. From what I can tell, Rob clearly has taken the time to research information on his own (as opposed to having it fed to him by twitter and Facebook) and is doing his best to get people to think critically and not succumb to panic.
Everyone is different but personally, I was more afraid of covid killing my vacation than I was of it killing me. We were tested on Christmas Eve and when we got our negative results, we packed. The beach seemed a little less crowded than previous trips but still very vibrant. If anything, there may have been less higglers than before but the regular vendors (pork, lobster, coco bread, fruit, juice) were out in force. I love explaining to people that have never been to Negril than you can get up in the morning and go to the beach and within an hour have jerk pork, followed by coco bread and washed down with fresh squeezed juice without leaving your beach chair (unless you decide to stay at an AI). A Jamaican by the name of Dru opened up a little eating spot right next to the BHC and makes incredible patties. I had to get up out of my chair to order it but, he delivers it to you. We went out to eat at Ivan's and Kuyaba and the crowds were decent. New Year's eve was crazy spectacular, live music up and down the beach and lanterns and fireworks lit up the sky.
I think masks are just plain dumb and avoid them at all costs. The only time I was required was at Times Square and Hi-Lo. Both places took our temperature too which I was fine with especially at Hi-Lo because it's inside and there are more Jamaicans who probably haven't been tested. On Saturday, a nurse came to our balcony and tested and we had results in 15 minutes.
Sorry if that was long winded and not entirely deft of politics but I thought the topic of this thread was important and that a response from someone that just got back could help people to decide.

[BethAnn38]

Ah how I’ve missed you guys! I too will refrain from inserting politics. Sorry Rob I know I got carried away last time.

[Rob]

Politics, especially US politics will be deleted on sight. This ain't FB and we strive for the truth over sensationalism.

Thanks for your insight LAX!

[BethAnn38]

It’s too bad not all forums follow your policy Rob! You rock.