Should We Go, or Should We Stay?

[wrtiii]

Good discussion.

My point is that no vaccine gives 100% immunity. The elimination of smallpox was made possible by the development of a vaccine that was 90% effective, in combination with developed long-term immunity by those who survived it. Note that "immunity" doesn't mean there's an invisible force field keeping a virus away from you, but that when a virus gets into you, the multiple layers of your immune system are able to deal with it without you getting sick, or very sick.

Smallpox was eliminated because (1) the virus - antigen - that causes it is a relatively easy one that doesn't mutate very rapidly and once your immune system recognizes it, the response is long-lasting; (2) a vaccine was developed that would alert the immune system against the antigen in 90% of the vaccinated population; and (3) a global effort was made in the late 1960's (nominally begun in 1959 but dramatically ramped up in 1967) to not only vaccinate everyone but to aggressively contact trace and isolate infected and exposed individuals in every country worldwide. This effort took about 10 years.

I think people used to understand this, and accept it. When I was a kid, the health services would formally quarantine families where there was a case of mumps. This meant that they put up "QUARANTINE" signs on your house, and the family was really locked down - no trips to the grocery store, no "essential worker" exceptions, etc. In combination with the MMR vaccines which confer about 85% protection, mumps has now become fairly rare, at least among the vaccinated.

The word "antibody" has been in use since before we knew what the things we now call "antibodies" are. The immune system has multiple layers, and the definition of "antibody" has narrowed from "something in the blood stream that attacks the antigen" to a rather precise chemical definition, and the existence and role of T cells, which attack infected cells rather than the antigen, has become more understood. A lot of this came in the 1990's as part of HIV/AIDS research. That's a large part of the reason the definitions had to change: it turns out that people with long-term immunity to a disease might have low antibodies against the disease, but heightened T cell response, or there's more going on with our immune systems than we understand at present (definitely true!).

At present, we in the US lack the public spirit and will to really isolate infected people; AIDS was a large part of the reason for that, as isolating was the same as "coming out" and we as a society shifted to thinking that telling people you had a transmissible disease was optional on your part.

One thing that has changed dramatically is that as far as I can tell, the "medical community" you cite really doesn't exist, because in the Internet era, politics completely dominate. By this I don't mean Democrat/Republican or Conservative/Liberal, but "if I agree with someone, I can rebroadcast his information or disinformation to everyone and Facebook will help me do it if I express outrage". "Dr, Oz says...". You yourself shared a BBC link that was written "By the Visual Journalism Team" and includes no references; while I am not saying anything in that article is wrong, generalizations such as these are designed to attract clicks, to have attractive visuals, and to be easy to read, but it is very difficult to fact check them. There have been a huge number of supposedly authoritative postings by "X who is a real doctor" during the past two years that are intended to play into the current tribal political situation rather than actually convey information. The CDC itself became much more political, and while I continue to think that the bulk of the researchers who work there are dedicated scientists, their number and funding were reduced and the actions and public statements by those at the top have been dubious at best. Redfield's term as the CDC Director certainly was a failure. But I'm not sure anyone could succeed in an environment where anyone claiming that bleach, or ivermectin, or zinc, or nasal douches, or vitamin C, or, or, or... gets an immediate large viewing audience.