Fares for me in January are 'WAY up this year - $650./person from Central New York with one stop. Two years ago I paid $425./person. Also, the prices are creeping up, not down, and the planes are full (look at the seating charts when you look for tickets). If prices are bouncing around the way you report, take the sub-$500 price now if you can get it. The chance of a significant decline is slim, and the chance of ending up paying $800 is significant.