Tropical Storm Watch Issued for Jamaica, Oct 22/12

[Lady Jane]

http://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/T...175249871.html

[Sweetness]

OY please let our visa be ready this afternoon so we can fly out tomorrow ahead of the storm. Thanks for the link Lady. I am very intereted on the developments. Bless

[SweetSue]

SWEETNESS --- GOOD LUCK TO YOU. I am keeping my fingers crossed that the paperwork comes thru on time and you can FLY, FLY, FLY!!!

All the Best. PEACE

[Coco]

I suppose we'll be here riding it out...the hubs has expressed no interest in leaving early.

[marley9808]

Oh no
My friends arrive today on their honeymoon
Hope this passes quickly with very little effect on everyone

Stay safe

[Living_the_Dream]

Praying for our Jamaica Friends and Family !!!

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ACQUIRED
SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THE EXACT CENTER IS STILL A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...BUT THE
SYSTEM HAS CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
INCREASED MARKEDLY SINCE OVERNIGHT. REFINEMENTS TO THE POSITION
COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY ONCE THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE INVESTIGATES THE SYSTEM.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 230/4 KT. THE CYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD
CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
AFTER 24 HOURS...A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CUBA
SHOULD PULL THE DEPRESSION NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD JAMAICA AND
EASTERN CUBA. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW VARYING SCENARIOS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK...THEY ALL AGREE ON A PERSISTENT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH DAY 5. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE
FOR STRENGTHENING...AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. IN
FACT...THERE IS A 50/50 CHANCE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL STRENGTHEN
BY AT LEAST 25 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BASED ON THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
FAIRLY QUICK STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BE ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A HURRICANE AS IT IS
APPROACHING JAMAICA. AFTER 48 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY...AND NEARLY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL TAKE ON MORE HYBRID
CHARACTERISTICS...SUCH AS AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD TO THE NORTH AND
ITS INTERACTION WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS THE CYCLONE BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL STORM
BY DAY 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 13.5N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 13.7N 78.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 14.3N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 15.7N 77.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 17.4N 77.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 20.5N 76.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND OVER CUBA
96H 26/1200Z 24.5N 74.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 27/1200Z 27.0N 73.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...SUBTROPICAL

[Flipadelphia26]

More interesting is a few outlier models that take this storm as a doozy up into the Balt/wash/philly/nyc area.

[captaind]

Right now the consensus of the models puts Kingston on the NE corner of the rotation (the mariner's term is the "dangerous semicircle").

The GDFL (Fluid Dynamics Lab 's Model) takes it farther West and puts the west end of Jamaica in the dangerous semicircle.

Ja is a small target and there's a chance that it will miss altogether. Let's hope

[Flipadelphia26]

Right now the consensus of the models puts Kingston on the NE corner of the rotation (the mariner's term is the "dangerous semicircle").

The GDFL (Fluid Dynamics Lab 's Model) takes it farther West and puts the west end of Jamaica in the dangerous semicircle.

Ja is a small target and there's a chance that it will miss altogether. Let's hope

I think it it gets by Jamaica as a TS. Gonna be a soaker though.

[MissNegril]

Got a really bad feeling about this storm and all the rain it will bring to Jamaica.