Retirement 2020

[rtitle]

I don't want beachside due to concerns about rising sea levels, hurricanes, storm surges, flooding, etc. Eventually the seas will be higher. The hotels on Beach Road will be underwater, the West End will be an island, etc. Even now pre-sea-level-rise a big hurricane strike can reduce any beachfront property to rubble. Not sure if anyone visited right after Ivan and drove around looking at the devastation (I did).

My place is on the south coast but about 5 miles inland and about 50 meters above sea level.

[Accompong]

I don't want beachside due to concerns about rising sea levels, hurricanes, storm surges, flooding, etc. Eventually the seas will be higher. The hotels on Beach Road will be underwater, the West End will be an island, etc. Even now pre-sea-level-rise a big hurricane strike can reduce any beachfront property to rubble. Not sure if anyone visited right after Ivan and drove around looking at the devastation (I did).

My place is on the south coast but about 5 miles inland and about 50 meters above sea level.

Over time, I would not be as concerned over hotels on the Beach Road being underwater or the West End being an island. Long before that, the further damage to the Jamaican Economy such catastrophes would cause would only bring more social chaos and make things worse for those who stand economically above a struggling population. No matter how many friends you have, it only takes one "Bad Mind" to ruin your day and your plans. Perhaps this is why people who have gone "affaren" and make money don't often return to Jamaica to retire.

What seems like a small amount of money to one person is an absolute fortune to another. I hope you have it all thought out and I hope you are very lucky as well. I know a lot of people who tried and failed at moving permanently to rural Jamaica.

I, too, will be very interested in hearing more of your experiences as you move forward.

[rtitle]

Over time, I would not be as concerned over hotels on the Beach Road being underwater or the West End being an island. Long before that, the further damage to the Jamaican Economy such catastrophes would cause would only bring more social chaos and make things worse for those who stand economically above a struggling population. No matter how many friends you have, it only takes one "Bad Mind" to ruin your day and your plans. Perhaps this is why people who have gone "affaren" and make money don't often return to Jamaica to retire.

I almost agree with your assessment but my conclusion is quite different.

I believe we will see dramatic sea level rise (multiple meters) in my lifetime. The IPCC forecast is way too conservative and does not take into account recent scientific data that the ice in Antartica and Greenland is melting much faster than previously thought. The trends pre-2010 are irrelevent; it's only since then that the oceans have finally absorbed the heat caused by the doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere, and risen in temperature (about 1 degree C), enough to trigger massive runaway ice melt at the poles.

This means much of Negril will be underwater at some future time. And more importantly, much of Miami, New York, Mumbai, Shanghai, Lagos, etc. I think that'll happen soon (by 2050). Most people think it'll take longer (e.g. by 2100), But we will get there.

You are correct that by the time that happens the Jamaican economy will be in shambles. However what you seem to be missing is that the world economy will also be in shambles. So then the question becomes, where do you want to be when this collapse happens?

I claim that you do *not* want to be in New York. Or Miami. Or London. Or Toronto. Or any other large city that Jamaicans go to when they "go foreign". People in big cities will starve. Money won't protect you after the world economy collapses.

You'll want to be somewhere you can live in safety and grow your own food.

I think farmland in rural Jamaica is an excellent choice. Maybe not perfect, but for me the best available choice. I know people who are looking at New Zealand for the same reasons. For me that's too far and too expensive.

Oh dear, I've shown my hand as far as how I'm thinking about my future and my motivations. Now you'll all think I'm a nutcase.

Well, at least I'm not moving to spend my remaining years doing drugs and chasing prostitutes. Growing vegetables is better, eh?

Peace and love,

Richard

[Rob]

I almost agree with your assessment but my conclusion is quite different.

I believe we will see dramatic sea level rise (multiple meters) in my lifetime. The IPCC forecast is way too conservative and does not take into account recent scientific data that the ice in Antartica and Greenland is melting much faster than previously thought. The trends pre-2010 are irrelevent; it's only since then that the oceans have finally absorbed the heat caused by the doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere, and risen in temperature (about 1 degree C), enough to trigger massive runaway ice melt at the poles.

This means much of Negril will be underwater at some future time. And more importantly, much of Miami, New York, Mumbai, Shanghai, Lagos, etc. I think that'll happen soon (by 2050). Most people think it'll take longer (e.g. by 2100), But we will get there.

You are correct that by the time that happens the Jamaican economy will be in shambles. However what you seem to be missing is that the world economy will also be in shambles. So then the question becomes, where do you want to be when this collapse happens?

I claim that you do *not* want to be in New York. Or Miami. Or London. Or Toronto. Or any other large city that Jamaicans go to when they "go foreign". People in big cities will starve. Money won't protect you after the world economy collapses.

You'll want to be somewhere you can live in safety and grow your own food.

I think farmland in rural Jamaica is an excellent choice. Maybe not perfect, but for me the best available choice. I know people who are looking at New Zealand for the same reasons. For me that's too far and too expensive.

Oh dear, I've shown my hand as far as how I'm thinking about my future and my motivations. Now you'll all think I'm a nutcase.

Well, at least I'm not moving to spend my remaining years doing drugs and chasing prostitutes. Growing vegetables is better, eh?

Peace and love,

Richard

Richard,

I don't think you are a nutcase, although I wonder sometimes about those experts who do the studies. I have never seen a sea level projection that takes into account possible tectonic plate activity. Jamaica gets its share of quakes. Quakes have been known to lift an entire landmass.

The Earth is a dynamic planet in a dynamic solar system. I think it is a bit foolhardy to think that humans, as a species less than 100,000 years in existence can predict the distant future with anymore accuracy than we can predict the weather. Google predicted rain all day (80% chance of rain at 6am) but I went ahead and got a load of laundry done and line dried today!

[rtitle]

For me it's an ethical choice. The global industrial economy is murdering the planet and I no longer want to be a participant in that. Growing my own food, organically, powered by solar energy, *not* using fossil fuels, is therefore my choice. And I'm going to try to do that in Westmoreland Jamaica.

The rastas have the right idea IMO. I mean the real rastas growing their own ital food in the countryside, not the fake ones on the beach in Negril selling themselves. Maybe I will also become a rasta. Although I don't have the right sort of hair

Peace and love,

Richard

[Ras Walleye]

“You don’t haffi dread to be Rasta!”

[Bnewb]

“You don’t haffi dread to be Rasta!”

Exactly...many bald headed Rastas...
Also Rastas are lawyers, politicians etc...not only farmers.

Rtitle...There are a few "real" Rastas on the beach selling their wares...hopefully you'll get to know them...good people!

[captaind]

I think being an expat, resident or frequent visitor requires a bit of "nuttyness"

Cap